A Formulation of Multidimensional Growth Models for the Assessment and Forecast of Technology Attributes
Danner, Travis W.
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A Formulation of Multidimensional Growth Models for the Assessment and Forecast of Technology Attributes Travis W. Danner 229 Pages Directed by Dr. Dimitri Mavris This research proposes the formulation of multidimensional growth models as an approach to simulating the advancement of multi-objective technologies towards their upper limits. These multidimensional growth models are formulated by noticing and exploiting the correlation between technology growth models and technology frontiers. Both are frontiers in actuality. The technology growth curve is a frontier between capability levels of a single attribute and time, while a technology frontier is a frontier between the capability levels of two or more attributes. Multidimensional growth models are formulated by exploiting the mathematical significance of this correlation. The result is a model that can capture both the interaction between multiple system attributes and their expected rates of improvement over time. The fundamental nature of technology development is maintained and interdependent growth curves are generated for each system metric with minimal data requirements. Being founded on the basic nature of technology advancement, relative to physical limits, the availability for further improvement can be determined for a single metric relative to other system measures of merit. A byproduct of this modeling approach is a single n-dimensional technology frontier linking all n system attributes with time. This provides an environment capable of forecasting future system capability in the form of advancing technology frontiers. In addition to formulating the multidimensional growth model, this research provides a systematic procedure for applying it to specific technology architectures. Researchers and decision-makers are able to investigate the potential for additional improvement within that technology architecture and estimate the expected cost of each incremental improvement relative to the cost of past improvements. In this manner, multidimensional growth models provide the necessary information to set reasonable program goals for the further development of a particular technological approach or to establish the need for new technological approaches in light of the constraining limits of conventional approaches.