A Methodology to Link Cost and Reliability for Launch Vehicle Design

Abstract

This dissertation is focused on the quantitative metrics of performance, cost, and reliability for future launch vehicles. Methods are developed that hold performance constant for a required mission and payload so that cost and reliability can be traded. Reliability strategies such as reducing the number of engines, increasing the thrust-to-weight ratio, and adding redundant subsystems all increase launch vehicle reliability. However, there are few references that illustrate the cost of increasing launch vehicle reliability in a disciplined, integrated approach.

For launch vehicle design, integrated performance, cost, and reliability disciplines are required to show the sensitivity of cost to different reliability strategies. A methodology is presented that demonstrates how to create the necessary launch vehicle reliability models and integrate them with the performance and cost disciplines. An integrated environment is developed for conceptual design that can rapidly assess thousands of launch vehicle configurations. The design process begins with a feasible launch vehicle configuration and its mission objectives. The performance disciplines, such as trajectory analysis, propulsion, and mass estimation are modeled to include the effects of using different reliability strategies. Reliability models are created based upon the launch vehicle configuration. Engine reliability receives additional attention because engines are historically one of the leading causes of launch vehicle failure. Additionally, the reliability of the propulsion subsystem changes dynamically when a launch vehicle design includes engine out capability. Cost estimating techniques which use parametric models are employed to capture the dependencies on system cost of increasing launch vehicle reliability. Uncertainty analysis is included within the cost and reliability disciplines because of the limited historical database for launch vehicles. Optimization is applied within the integrated design environment to find the best launch vehicle configuration based upon a particular weighting of cost and reliability.

The results show that both the Saturn V and future launch vehicles could be optimized to be significantly cheaper, be more reliable, or have a compromise solution by illustrating how cost and reliability are coupled with vehicle configuration changes.