A strategic planning approach for the operational-environmental problem of air transportation system terminal areas
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The air transportation system plays a crucial role in modern society, comprising a major industrial sector as well as a key driver for adjacent economies. Moreover, it is a prime enabler of the modern way of life, characterized by access to products and services from around the world, and access to remote locations. Therefore there is a strong incentive to maintain the system and promote its growth. None the less, important challenges have plagued civil aviation, particularly the commercial aviation sector. On one hand, demand for air travel has grown dramatically and at an accelerated pace, in part due to the deregulation of airlines in 1978, providing airlines with the freedom to arrange their operational schedule freely and compete for markets. The dynamic nature of demand and its fast-paced growth contrasts with the relative rigidity of air transportation infrastructure development and the sluggish evolution of its operational architecture. The supply-demand mismatch that results has led to degradation in system efficiency, excessive delays, and substantial economic losses. This phenomenon is particularly exacerbated in the terminal area of major airports which have inevitably become operational choke points. On the other hand the environmental impact of air transportation, embodied primarily by the emissions and noise caused by aircraft operations, has also grown as a result of the increase in aviation activity, and has therefore become a major issue of public interest. Airport communities experience said environmental impact most intensely, particularly those associated with bottleneck airports, and thus represent a uniquely strong force opposing further expansion of air transportation in these areas where it is most needed. Past efforts to address these challenges have been notably stovepiped and have failed to recognize the importance of the relationship between the operational nature of the system and its environmental impact. Only recently have research efforts begun to incorporate a joint view of the operational-environmental problem that attempts to formulate solutions accordingly. However, the state of the art has yet to answer some of the most fundamental questions. First, the relationship between operational and environmental elements has not been quantified conclusively. Doing so is vital to understand the operational-environmental nature of terminal areas before any solutions can be considered. Secondly, many different types of solution alternatives have been proposed, such as the construction of new runways, redesign of operational procedures, introduction of advanced aircraft concepts, and transformation of airspace capabilities. However, a direct comparison between dissimilar alternatives that accounts for operational and environmental issues is rarely found, and yet remains crucial in the formulation of a solution portfolio. More importantly, the additive and countervailing interactions that different solutions have on each other are widely recognized but remain, for the most part, unknown. Because all solutions under consideration require an extended period of time to develop and represent very large economic commitments, the selection of a portfolio demands a careful look at the future to determine the adequate measures that should be pursued in the present. In response to this methodological need, this thesis proposes a strategic planning approach to investigate the operational-environmental nature of the air transportation system, as well as the adequacy of solution alternatives for terminal areas in the formulation of a portfolio. The state of the art currently incorporates elements of strategic planning, but has yet to address two important methodological gaps. First, the inherent systemic complexity of airport performance obfuscates its quantitative characterization, which is paramount in attaining adequate insight and understanding to support informed strategic decision-making in the selection of terminal area solutions. Second, there is significant uncertainty about the evolution of the aviation demand and its operational context, making the use of forecasts grossly inadequate for this application. A scenario-based approach is used in its place, but the current frameworks for the generation, evaluation, and selection of an adequate scenario set currently lack traceability and methodological rigor. To address the first gap, this thesis proposes the use of well established statistical analysis techniques, leveraging on recent developments in interactive data visualization capabilities, to quantitatively characterize the interactions, sensitivities, and tradeoffs prevalent in the complex behavior of airport operational and environmental performance. Within the strategic airport planning process, this approach is used in the assessment of airport performance under current/reference conditions, as well as in the evaluation of terminal area solutions under projected demand conditions. More specifically, customized designs of experiments are utilized to guide the intelligent selection and definition of modeling and simulation runs that will yield greater understanding, insight, and information about the inherent systemic complexity of a terminal area, with minimal computational expense. Regression analysis leverages the creation of response surface equations that explicitly and quantitatively capture the behavior of system metrics of interest as functions of factors or terminal area solutions. This explicit mathematical characterization enables a variety of interactive visualization schemes that allow analysts and decision makers to confirm or rectify expected patterns of behavior, and to discover the unknown and the unexpected. Said visualization schemes are also instrumental in communicating, in a very direct and succinct fashion, complex relationships, sensitivities, tradeoffs, and interactions, that would be otherwise too complex to explain or communicate transparently. More importantly, this approach provides a rigorous and formalized mathematical framework within which the statistical significance of different factors or terminal area solutions can be quantitatively and explicitly assessed, primarily by means of statistical hypotheses testing of regression parameter estimates, such as the analysis of variance, or the t-statistic test. This proposed approach does not suggest a new strategic planning process, but rather improves specific steps pertaining to performance assessments, and builds upon established practices and the recommended planning process for airports to leverage on the decades of experience supporting the existing strategic airport planning paradigm. On the other hand, the proposed approach recognizes the methodological limitations and constraints that lead to the lack of terminal area performance characterization within the strategic planning process, embodied primarily by computational constraints and unmanageable systemic complexity, and directly addresses these shortcomings by incorporating mature statistical analysis techniques into key steps of said process. In turn, the proposed approach represents a novel adaptation of the strategic airport planning process that results in greater knowledge, insight, and understanding, at a resource cost comparable to current airport planning practices. As such, this proposed approach is demonstrated using the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport as a representative test case, and constitutes a contribution to strategic airport planning given that it supports strategic decision making by revealing, at an acceptable analysis and computational expense, the various sensitivities, interactions, and tradeoffs of interest in operational-environmental performance that would otherwise remain implicit and obfuscated by systemic complexity. For the research documented in this thesis, a modeling and simulation environment was created featuring three primary components. First, a generator of schedules of operations, based primarily on previous work on aviation demand characterization, whereby growth factors and scheduling adjustment algorithms are applied on appropriate baseline schedules so as to generate notional operational sets representative of consistent future demand conditions. The second component pertains to the modeling and simulation of aircraft operations, defined by a schedule of operations, on the airport surface and within its terminal airspace. This component is a discrete event simulator for multiple queuing models that captures the operational architecture of the entire terminal area along with all the necessary operational logic pertaining to simulated ATC functions, rules, and standard practices. The third and final component is comprised of legacy aircraft performance, emissions and dispersion, and noise exposure modeling tools, that use the simulation history of aircraft movements to generate estimates of fuel burn, emissions, and noise. A set of designed modeling and simulation experiments were conducted to examine the interactions between exogenous and endogenous factors, as well as their main and quadratic effect, on operational metrics such as delay, and on fuel burn as the primary environmental metrics. Results show that for a gate-hold scheme used to manage surface traffic density, the departure queue threshold features a statistically significant interaction with the increasing number of operations, but that otherwise the relative percent change in the number of operations remains as the predominant exogenous factor driving operational and environmental performance. A separate design of modeling and simulation experiments was conducted to test the statistical significance of proposed geographical regional categories that could potentially be used to classify operations and capture operational demand characteristics such as fleet mix, time of day distribution, and arrival/departure route distribution. Results show that whereas the proposed categorization is statistically significant for a few metric of interest, marginally significant for others, and not statistically significant for most metrics, the proposed regional classification scheme is not appropriate for operational demand characterization. The implementation of the proposed approach for the assessment of terminal area solutions incorporates the use of discrete response surface equations, and eliminates the use of quadratic terms that have no practical significance in this context. Rather, attention is entire placed on the main effects of different terminal area solutions, namely additional airport infrastructure, operational improvements, and advanced aircraft concepts, modeled as discrete independent variables for the regression model. Results reveal that an additional runway and a new international terminal, as well as reduced aircraft separation, have a major effect on all operational metrics of interest. In particular, the additional runway has a dominant effect for departure delay metrics and gate hold periods, with moderate interactions with respect to separation reduction. On the other hand, operational metrics for arrivals are co-dependent on additional infrastructure and separation reduction, featuring marginal improvements whenever these two solutions are implemented in isolation, but featuring a dramatic compounding effect when implemented in combination. The magnitude of these main effects for departures and of the interaction between these solutions for arrivals is confirmed through appropriate statistical significance testing. Finally, the inclusion o advanced aircraft concepts is shown to be most beneficial for airborne arrival operations and to a lesser extent for arrival ground movements. More specifically, advanced aircraft concepts were found to be primarily responsible for reductions in volatile organic compounds, unburned hydrocarbons, and particulate matter in this flight regime, but featured relevant interactions with separation reduction and additional airport infrastructure. To address the second gap, pertaining to the selection of scenarios for strategic airport planning, a technique for risk-based scenario construction, evaluation, and selection is proposed, incorporating n-dimensional dependence tree probability approximations into a morphological analysis approach. This approach to scenario construction and downselection is a distinct and novel contribution to the scenario planning field as it provides a mathematically and explicitly testable definition for an H parameter, contrasting with the qualitative alternatives in the current state of the art, which can be used in morphological analysis for scenario construction and downselection. By demonstrating that dependence tree probability product approximations are an adequate aggregation function, probability can be used for scenario construction and downselection without any mathematical or methodological restriction on the resolution of the probability scale or the number of morphological alternatives that have previously plagued probabilization and scenario downselection approaches. In addition, this approach requires expert input elicitation that is comparable or less than the current state of the art practices.