• More than Moore: Comparing Forecasts of Technological Progress 

      Farmer, J. Doyne; Nagy, Bela; Trancik, Jessika Ebba (Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-10-02)
      A key challenge in modeling technological innovation is to predict future costs based on historical data. This is of great interest to academics, as well as decision makers both in the private and public sectors. For ...
    • The Role of Design Complexity in Technology Improvement 

      Farmer, J. Doyne; McNerney, James; Redner, Sid; Trancik, Jessika Ebba (Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-10-02)
      We study a simplification of a previously proposed model of technology evolution to understand the behavior of performance curves, which describe how a technology improves with increasing cumulative production. The model ...