A conceptual methodology for assessing acquisition requirements robustness against technology uncertainties

Abstract

The lack of system capability, budget, and schedule robustness against technology performance and development uncertainties has led to major setbacks in recent acquisition programs. This lack of robustness stems from the fact that immature technologies have uncertainties in their expected performance and development times and costs that translate to variations in system effectiveness and program development budget and schedule requirements. As such, the objective of this thesis is to formulate an assessment process that better informs acquisition decision-makers of program requirements robustness against such uncertainties.

To meet the stated research objective, a conceptual methodology for assessing acquisition requirements robustness against technology performance and development uncertainties was formulated. This general approach provides a structured process for integrating probabilistic and quantitative forecasting, multi-criteria decision-making, and decision-support techniques to generate the statistical data needed to quantitatively predict requirements robustness. The results of the robustness assessment indicates to the decision-makers whether or not the technology or set of technologies being developed for the program will result in system capabilities and program budget and schedule that meet decision-maker requirements and preferences. This results in a more informed and justifiable selection of program technologies during initial program definition as well as formulation of program development and risk management strategies.