Does Transformative Research Have Early Signs?

Abstract

I will first introduce an explanatory and computational theory of scientific discovery. The theory provides an extensible framework, which currently consists of structural and temporal properties as the necessary conditions for potentially significant discoveries. I will illustrate the potential of the theory by demonstrating how the theory can be used to derive metrics for identifying the potential of transformative research. Finally, I will demonstrate how such metrics can be validated and discuss implications of these metrics on assessing and monitoring the forefront of research.