Drought in Southwest Georgia and the Use of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
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Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) was used to produce medium to long-range streamflow forecasts at two sites within the upper part of the Flint River Basin in Georgia. Forecasts using ESP for mean monthly streamflows from July through September 2000 were produced. These were compared to actual streamflows by using provisional data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). ESP has been used mainly assuming that each year of meteorological data is equally likely to occur in the future. This means that equal yearly weights are assigned. In this paper, an alternative is presented, that of deriving variable yearly weights based on precipitation outlooks. 'Precipitation outlooks issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) were used in this study. Curves showing probability of exceedance were derived for equal and variable weights. It is thought that variable weights should be adopted; however, further investigation on their derivation is suggested. An evaluation of the range of influence of initial conditions should also be considered so that a meaningful forecast window can be determined.