Uncertainty Analysis of Unimpaired Flow and Monthly 7Q10
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The basic hydrologic inputs to the surface water availability assessment of Statewide Water Management Plan, unimpaired flow (UIF) and monthly 7Q10, were developed with USGS flow data, water use data, reservoir operation data, etc. Uncertainties exist in all these input data and are propagated into the resulting UIF and monthly 7Q10 through the development process. The magnitude of uncertainty in all input data was determined and the amount of uncertainty in each step of the development process was analyzed. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to quantify the uncertainty in all input data and resulting UIF and monthly 7Q10. Our initial analyses indicate that the amount of uncertainty in both development of the UIF data and the development of monthly 7Q10’s is very small, and has no significant influence on modeling results of surface water availability assessment. The largest uncertainty in UIF and 7Q10 was contributed by stream flow data filling process.