An Analytical Approach for Evaluating the Influence of Uncertainty in Unimpaired Flow Development
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With certain increasing demands on Georgia’s waters, the General Assembly recognized the need for a proactive and comprehensive plan to meet future challenges. Thus the Assembly authorized the Georgia Comprehensive State-wide Water Management Plan, Surface Water Availability Assessment. One of the important products developed from this assessment was Unimpaired Flows (UIF), which are the basis for all current and future water resources assessments in Georgia. However, an important question in regard to UIF is their reliability and uncertainty. In this article, an analytical approach was proposed and used to analyze and quantify uncertainty of all variables and factors that affect UIF development. Several typical statistical distributions, such as normal and uniform distributions, were investigated. Confidence intervals and statistics of UIF and resultant 7Q10 flows based on these different distributions were calculated. The results of this analytical approach are compared with a numerical solution to the problem in order to verify, validate, and assess the efficiency of the proposed approach.