Modeling for conflict resolution using parameterization of operations and strong stakeholder initiatives
McMahon, George F.
Hawkins, David E.
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The collapse of the ACT/ACF compacts disclosed potential shortcomings of using a conventional water resources model under highly contentious negotiating circumstances. The authors envision an alternative conflict-resolution platform using a different approach, one that was used in an earlier investigation into uncertainty in water quality research. The platform employs Monte Carlo simulation parameterizing water resources operations, randomly selecting parameter combinations, and inputting these as forcing functions to a core water resources operation model. The core model uses constraints determined and quantified by stakeholders, and simulation results can be evaluated by these constraints (visualized as corridors for a simulated quantity to pass through). If a certain parameter combination provides satisfactory simulation results, then the operational policy it represents constitutes a potential solution for the conflict. Iterative model application enables continuous refinement of constraints, parameters and operation rules, until a potential solution is found. The computation results can also be analyzed for the sensitivities of the system to changes in parameters (operations), and thus key operations can be identified.