Identifying Key Model Parameters in Matching Observed Past and Possible Future Behaviors for Lake Oglethorpe, Georgia
Osidele, Olufemi O.
Beck, M. B.
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Lake Oglethorpe, a small impoundment located east of Athens in Oglethorpe County, Georgia, has been extensively studied since 1978. It currently provides a test base for some of our methods in on-going research into the long-term ecological integrity of nearby Lake Lanier. In this paper, we present the basic structure of a total ecosystem model being developed for simulating ecological processes in lake communities, and a regionalized sensitivity analysis approach for evaluating the model's constituent hypotheses. We hypothesize that long-term changes in the behavior of Lake Oglethorpe will be governed by slowly evolving processes - specifically the sediment-water interactions and fish population dynamics - typified by the timeconstants within the model. We present some preliminary results of our assessment of the significant ecological processes responsible for shaping the past and future behavior of Lake Oglethorpe.