Georges over Puerto Rico

Abstract

Hurricane Georges, the second most deadly tropical storm of this past hurricane season, posed a unique forecasting problem to the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC). Though the SERFC has produced river forecasts for many hurricanes making landfall along the Gulf Coast and South Atlantic seaboard, this event was the first time the SERFC attempted to provide river guidance to Puerto Rico. Prior to this powerful storm's movement across the island, the SERFC provided forecasts on projected river response to the anticipated heavy rainfall. This paper will provide a case study on the results of these forecasts as compared to the actual river response as a result of observed rainfall associated with Georges. A comparison of actual precipitation amounts against forecasted rainfall is studied. Noteworthy river forecast model deficiencies are also discussed.