Closing the building energy performance gap by improving our predictions
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Increasing studies imply that predicted energy performance of buildings significantly deviates from actual measured energy use. This so-called "performance gap" may undermine one's confidence in energy-efficient buildings, and thereby the role of building energy efficiency in the national carbon reduction plan. Closing the performance gap becomes a daunting challenge for the involved professions, stimulating them to reflect on how to investigate and better understand the size, origins, and extent of the gap. The energy performance gap underlines the lack of prediction capability of current building energy models. Specifically, existing predictions are predominantly deterministic, providing point estimation over the future quantity or event of interest. It, thus, largely ignores the error and noise inherent in an uncertain future of building energy consumption. To overcome this, the thesis turns to a thriving area in engineering statistics that focuses on computation-based uncertainty quantification. The work provides theories and models that enable probabilistic prediction over future energy consumption, forming the basis of risk assessment in decision-making. Uncertainties that affect the wide variety of interacting systems in buildings are organized into five scales (meteorology - urban - building - systems - occupants). At each level both model form and input parameter uncertainty are characterized with probability, involving statistical modeling and parameter distributional analysis. The quantification of uncertainty at different system scales is accomplished using the network of collaborators established through an NSF-funded research project. The bottom-up uncertainty quantification approach, which deals with meta uncertainty, is fundamental for generic application of uncertainty analysis across different types of buildings, under different urban climate conditions, and in different usage scenarios. Probabilistic predictions are evaluated by two criteria: coverage and sharpness. The goal of probabilistic prediction is to maximize the sharpness of the predictive distributions subject to the coverage of the realized values. The method is evaluated on a set of buildings on the Georgia Tech campus. The energy consumption of each building is monitored in most cases by a collection of hourly sub-metered consumption data. This research shows that a good match of probabilistic predictions and the real building energy consumption in operation is achievable. Results from the six case buildings show that using the best point estimations of the probabilistic predictions reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) from 44% to 15% and the root mean squared error (RMSE) from 49% to 18% in total annual cooling energy consumption. As for monthly cooling energy consumption, the MAE decreases from 44% to 21% and the RMSE decreases from 53% to 28%. More importantly, the entire probability distributions are statistically verified at annual level of building energy predictions. Based on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied to these buildings, the thesis concludes that the proposed method significantly reduces the magnitude and effectively infers the origins of the building energy performance gap.