A framework for technology exploration of aviation environmental mitigation strategies
Levine, Matthew Jason
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The goal of this thesis was to develop a framework for modeling relevant environmental performance metrics and objectively simulating the future environmental impacts of aviation given the evolution of the fleet, the development of new technologies, and the expansion of airports. By exchanging fidelity for computational speed, a screening-level framework for assessing aviation's environmental impacts can be developed to observe new insights on fleet-level trends and inform environmental mitigation strategies. This was accomplished by developing per class average ``generic-vehicle" models that can reduce the fleet to a few representative aircraft models for predicting fleet results with reasonable accuracy. The method for Generating Emissions and Noise, Evaluating Residuals and using Inverse method for Choosing the best Alternatives (GENERICA) expands a previous generic vehicle formulation to additionally match DNL contours across a subset of airports. Designs of experiments, surrogate models, Monte Carlo simulations, and ``desirability" scores were combined to set the vehicle design parameters and reduce the mean relative error across the subset of airports. Results show these vehicle models more accurately represented contours at busy airports operating a wide variety of aircraft as compared to a traditional representative-in-class approach. Additionally, a rapid method for assessing population exposure counts was developed and incorporated into the noise tool, and the generic vehicles demonstrated accuracy with respect to population exposure counts for the actual fleet in the baseline year. The capabilities of the enabled framework were demonstrated to show fleet-level trends and explore placement of new runways at capacity constrained airports.