Predicting Revitalization: a descriptive narrative and predictive analysis of neighborhood revitalization in Atlanta, Georgia

Abstract

Over the past two decades, revitalization has been transforming many of Atlantaﾒs unique neighborhoods and attracting new residents, businesses, and investments to the cityﾒs urban core. This has resulted in positive and negative effects that are important to consider as redevelopment continues throughout Atlanta, especially in low?income or disadvantaged communities. In order to mitigate the consequences of redevelopment while highlighting opportunities for growth and innovation, it is important to investigate how and why some Atlanta neighborhoods undergo revitalization earlier or at a more rapid pace than others. This paper seeks to identify significant physical, sociodemographic, and policy?related factors that may catalyze or otherwise predict revitalization in certain communities, and then apply these indicators to Atlantaﾒs remaining neighborhoods to classify those with a greater potential to revitalize in the coming years. To achieve this, a time?lagged probit model was developed to measure hypothesized revitalization indicators within each of Atlantaﾒs Neighborhood Statistical Areas across multiple time periods. This model suggests that revitalization often occurs in Atlanta neighborhoods that overlap with designated historic districts, those that are within walking distance of transit stations and the Beltline, those that are adjacent to other revitalized neighborhoods, those with lower percentages of renter?occupied housing units, and those with greater proportions of jobs in creative, higher education, and professional and technical service industries. Using these results, the model identified other neighborhoods that contain a combination of factors which make them susceptible to revitalization.