Probabilisitic bulk resource planning with variable non-dispatchable resource penetration
Skeath, John Paul
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Transmission planning with respect to resource adequacy has largely been a deterministic process that fixes the hour of study to a predetermined point. With the rise of non-dispatchable generation, namely photovoltaic solar and wind turbine plants, these set hours may not be an accurate assessment of the reliability of the transmission system. This thesis aims to provide a methodology a Transmission Planner may utilize in order to probabilistically calculate reliability metrics for processes that were originally done deterministically. A test system consisting of dispatchable and non-dispatchable generation serving load on a perfect transmission system is utilized to calculate the LOLP, EUE, and LOLE through a production costing methodology and varying penetration levels of the non-dispatchable resources. Four different scenarios were chosen to illustrate the relationship between the increase of penetration for these non-dispatchable resources and the decrease of the LOLP, EUE, and LOLE. Choosing the worst-case scenario, the author then attempts to determine the equivalent generating capacity increases to capture the reliability improvement of a dispatchable resource.