Estimating demand for an electric vertical landing and takeoff (eVTOL) air taxi service using discrete choice modeling

Abstract

Urban Air Mobility (UAM), often referred to in the press as “flying cars,” is slated to be the next big thing in transportation. As congestion continues to increase on our roads and transit systems are in dire need of maintenance, commuters are looking out for other alternatives that can save time, and be cost-efficient, safe, and comfortable. With numerous companies vying to launch their service in the early part of the next decade, it is essential to analyze the effectiveness of UAM solutions and model how UAM could compete against the other, more established modes of transportation. A travel demand modeling study, on the basis of the utility maximization theory, has been conducted based on a stated preference survey of 2,500 commuters living and working in the Atlanta, Boston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, San Francisco, and Los Angeles areas. The study provides estimates of market share for the new air taxi service assuming current market conditions (i.e., no autonomous ground vehicles).