Test-Based Stabilizing Control of COVID-19 Transmission
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The COVID-19 pandemic has confronted the world with a health and an economic crisis not seen since 1918. Appearing first in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, the virus has now spread to over 150 countries. At the time of this writing, hundreds of thousands have already been infected and tens of thousands have died as a result. Given the virus' high degree of contagion, a question that occupies everyone's mind is whether a strategy could be conceived to suppress or at least substantially slow the spread of the virus until a vaccine becomes widely available. Using an extended SEIR model with COVID-19's available epidemiological parameters, this paper studies a feedback control solution to stabilize the virus' transmission dynamic based on a test-and-isolate strategy. The derived theoretical results combined with simulation analyses are used to answer key questions around testing strategies that will be required for suppression of the virus.