Probabilistic Modeling of Technology Development for use in Project Planning and Management
Largent, Matthew Clinton
Mavris, Dimitri N.
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From the dawn of human flight, the use of new technology has been necessary for aircraft to fly faster, further, and higher. That need continues today, making technology development a critical factor in new aerospace systems development. This study introduces some of the detailed formulation behind a process developed to assist the planning and management of a development project for a new technology. The process is based on risk management and uses probabilistic analysis, project network techniques, and Bayesian statistics in order to provide information useful for decision making. The six steps in the process focus on identification and reduction of performance uncertainty, as well as identification of cost and schedule risk and uncertainty. The process introduces some ways in which analysis can interact with expert opinion in order to produce meaningful system-level comparisons of technologies. The iterative nature of the process helps to deal with uncertainty in the technology and outside influences which affect the technology?s development.