Adaptive Selection of Aircraft Engine Technologies in the Presence of Risk
Roth, Bryce Alexander
Mavris, Dimitri N.
Macsotai, Noel I.
MetadataShow full item record
The objective of this paper is to describe a method for selecting optimal engine technology solution sets while simultaneously accounting for the presence of technology risk. This method uses a genetic algorithm in conjunction with Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection methods to find optimal combinations of technologies. The unique feature of this method is that the technology evaluation itself is probabilistic in nature. This allows the performance impact and associated risk of each technology to be quantified in terms of a distribution on key engine technology metrics. The resulting method can best be characterized as a concurrent genetic algorithm/Monte Carlo analysis that yields a performance- and risk-optimal technology solution set. This solution set is inherently a robust solution because the method will naturally strive to find those technologies representing the best compromise between performance improvement and technology risk. Finally, a practical demonstration of the method and accompanying results is given for a typical commercial aircraft engine technology selection problem.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
The interactions between emerging technologies and institutional environments in developing countries: The case of GM maize in Argentina Bortagaray, Isabel; Cozzens, Susan E. (Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008-09)This work is aimed at advancing the understanding of the interactions and dynamics between emerging technologies, and the institutional environments in national settings. Interactions and coevolution of technologies and ...
Technology Readiness Level, Schedule Risk and Slippage in Spacecraft Design: Data Analysis and Modeling Dubos, Gregory F.; Saleh, Joseph H.; Braun, Robert D. (Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007-09)Schedule slippage plagues the space industry, and is antinomic with the recent emphasis on space responsiveness. The Government Accountability Office has repeatedly noted the difficulties encountered by the Department ...
Roth, Bryce Alexander; Graham, Matthew; Mavris, Dimitri N.; Macsotai, Noel I. (Georgia Institute of Technology, 2002)Successful selection of propulsion system technologies for development and incorporation into new engine designs requires careful balance among many competing design objectives (i.e. performance, cost, risk, etc.). One ...