Economic Uncertainty Assessment Using a Combined Design of Experiments/Monte Carlo Simulation Approach with Application to an HSCT
Mavris, Dimitri N.
MetadataShow full item record
Recently, the aerospace industry has felt the impact of the combined effect of increasing aircraft systems costs and budget restrictions and is reacting through a series of initiatives to help minimize their overall Life Cycle Costs. These growing concerns have prompted the appearance of various risk assessment and reduction techniques. These techniques have been incorporated into a Robust Aircraft Design Simulation methodology which is based on an Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) approach. This IPPD environment accounts for the effects of each discipline (i.e. aerodynamics, structures, propulsion, producibility, supportability, etc.) and their corresponding technological advances on the overall system evaluation criterion, the average yield per revenue passenger mile. This paper reviews this IPPD methodology by describing the techniques on which it is based, such as the Design of Experiments, Response Surface Methods, and Monte Carlo Simulation, and illustrates the steps taken for its implementation for the economic uncertainty assessment of a High Speed Civil Transport vehicle.