A Stochastic Approach to Multi-disciplinary Aircraft Analysis and Design
Mavris, Dimitri N.
DeLaurentis, Daniel A.
Hale, Mark A.
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Within the context of multi-disciplinary aircraft analysis and design, a new approach has been formulated and described which allows for the rapid technical feasibility and economic viability assessment of multi- attribute, multi-constrained designs. The approach, referred to here as Virtual Stochastic Life Cycle Design, facilitates the multi-disciplinary consideration of a system, accounting for life-cycle issues in a stochastic fashion. The life-cycle consideration is deemed essential in order to evaluate the emerging, all encompassing system objective of affordability. The stochastic treatment is employed to account for the knowledge variation/uncertainty that occurs in time through the various phases of design. Variability found in the treatment of assumptions, ambiguous requirements, code fidelity (imprecision), economic uncertainty, and technological risk are all examples of categories of uncertainty that the proposed probabilistic approach can assess. For cases where the problem is over-constrained and a feasible solution is not possible, the proposed method facilitates the identification and provides guidance in the determination of potential barriers which will have to be overcome via the infusion of new technologies. The specific task of examining system feasibility and viability is encapsulated and outlined in a series of easy to follow steps. Finally, the method concludes with a brief description and discussion of proposed decision making techniques to achieve optimal designs with reduced variability. This decision making is achieved through a combined utility theory and Robust Design Simulation approach.
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