Uncertainty Modeling and Management in Multidisciplinary Analysis and Synthesis
DeLaurentis, Daniel A.
Mavris, Dimitri N.
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The complex, multidisciplinary nature of aerospace design problems, as well as the requirement to examine life-cycle characteristics, have exposed a need to model and manage uncertainty. In this paper, a formal approach for modeling uncertainty in such design problems is presented. The approach includes uncertainties associated with mathematical models, operation environment, response measurement, and input requirements. In addition, a new method for propagating this uncertainty (in an efficient manner) to find robust design solutions is developed and described. The uncertainty model combined with the probabilistic robust design technique is a critical advancement in multidisciplinary system design, in that it identifies solutions that have a maximum probability of success. Continued research in both uncertainty modeling and efficient robust design methods appears essential. Both the uncertainty model and robust design technique are demonstrated on an example problem involving the design of a supersonic transport aircraft using the relaxed static stability technology. At each step, validation studies are performed and initial results indicate that the robust design method represents an accurate depiction of the problem. This depiction provides critical insight into where and why uncertainty affects the family of design solutions.