PRedicting Emergence Of Virulent Entities By Novel Technologies (PREVENT) Symposium - Session 3, Population Level Theme
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Bryan Grenfell - Plenary Talk TITLE: "What Cross-Scale Research Can Tell Us About Predicting, Understanding And Mitigating Future Pandemics?" We briefly review the epidemic and evolutionary dynamics of directly-transmitted infections and their transition from pandemics to endemicity. We discuss how cross-scale dynamics, from protein to pandemic, determine key issues in understanding, predicting and mitigating outbreaks, then build on this to discuss future cross-scale research and public health priorities.Bin Yu - Presentation TITLE: "Curating a COVID-19 Data Repository and Forecasting County-Level Death Counts in the United States". As the COVID-19 outbreak continues to evolve, accurate forecasting continues to play an extremely important role in informing policy decisions. In this talk, I will describe a large data repository containing COVID-19 information curated from a range of different sources. This data is then used to develop several predictors and prediction intervals for forecasting the short-term (e.g., over the next week) trajectory of COVID-19-related recorded deaths at the county-level in the United States.Jordan Peccia - Presentation TITLE: "Tracking Epidemics at the Population Level Through Wastewater-Based Epidemiology". Throughout the world, wastewater is continually collected from human populations and conveyed to central locations for treatment and/or discharge. The chemical and biological features of wastewater contain insight into the disease state and behavior of a community. This talk reports on the Yale COVID-19 wastewater project, where daily samples were collected from eight different wastewater treatment facilities representing 20 Connecticut towns and cities and covering a population of more than one million. Tracking SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in these treatment facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic and linking these concentrations to public health data demonstrate how wastewater-based epidemiology can be a rapid, cost effective, and accurate measure of disease dynamics within a community.