EMERGING FRAMEWORKS FOR HANDLING DEEP UNCERTAINTY WITH APPLICATIONS TO LONG-TERM TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

Abstract

Long-term transportation planning is necessary for allocating funds, prioritizing projects, scheduling maintenance, and preparing for future challenges such as population changes and urban development. However, it is becoming increasingly complex and challenging for decision makers to establish long-term transportation plans because the future is deeply uncertain. Additionally, as critical infrastructures (such as transportation) become increasingly interconnected and complex, the threat of catastrophic Black Swan events could become more frequent. As such, it is critical for transportation planners to incorporate deep uncertainty in long-term planning and emphasize resilience as an overarching strategy for future actions. The objective of this writing is to discuss traditional transportation planning methods and review (1) several emerging methods for addressing deep uncertainty in transportation planning and (2) methods to enhance overall system resilience. A feasibility study of transportation agencies will be discussed and next steps for transportation planners will be presented. The discussions in this writing will establish a launching point for future research and innovation in existing planning methods, which will lay the groundwork for adoption of strategies to enhance overall resilience for deeply uncertain futures.