Designing Sustainable Launch Systems: Flexibility, Lock-In and System Evolution

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dc.contributor.author Silver, Matthew en_US
dc.contributor.author De Weck, Olivier en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2006-01-23T19:36:11Z en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2006-03-03T21:11:48Z
dc.date.available 2006-01-23T19:36:11Z en_US
dc.date.available 2006-03-03T21:11:48Z
dc.date.issued 2005-11-09 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1853/8041
dc.description This conference features the work of authors from: Georgia Tech’s Space Systems Design Lab, Aerospace Systems Design Lab, School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Tech Research Institute; NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Marshall Space Flight Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, Langley Research Center; and other aerospace industry and academic institutions en_US
dc.description.abstract NASA has recently made the decision to develop a heavy lift launch system with Shuttle- Derived components, but myriad questions remain about technical design and development strategy. The complexity of heavy lift launch systems and their interconnectedness to the rest of the exploration architecture ensures that near-term architectural design decisions will greatly affect long-term options for future space exploration. This paper uses Real Options valuation to compare two possible development plans for a heavy lift launch system. Taking into account cost profiles, capacity, and uncertainty in demand, various heavy lift vehicle strategies are presented and evaluated along plausible development paths. These strategies can be framed as Shuttle-Derived-Architectures with "options" to change capability in the face shifting demand and risk tolerance scenarios. Initial results suggest that life-cycle optimality is heavily dependant on schedule uncertainty, while less sensitive to lunar and mars mission architectures and initial mass in low earth orbit (IMLEO). Future work will involve more detailed analysis of switching options and switching costs, as well as a more comprehensive network model of switching decisions in order to compare more vehicle configurations. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship AIAA Space Systems Technical Committee ; AIAA Space Transportation Systems Technical Committee ; Space Technology Advanced Research Center en_US
dc.format.extent 1276639 bytes en_US
dc.format.extent 1905 bytes
dc.format.extent 1276639 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en_US
dc.format.mimetype text/plain
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Georgia Institute of Technology en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries SSEC05 Session E;GT-SSEC.E.3 en_US
dc.subject Heavy lift vehicle configuration en_US
dc.subject Design and development strategies en_US
dc.subject Shuttle-derived components en_US
dc.subject Vehicle configurations en_US
dc.subject Life-cycle optimality en_US
dc.subject Real Options valuation en_US
dc.subject Long-term options for future space exploration en_US
dc.title Designing Sustainable Launch Systems: Flexibility, Lock-In and System Evolution en_US
dc.type Presentation en_US
dc.contributor.corporatename Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.contributor.corporatename Georgia Institute of Technology. Space Systems Design Lab en_US


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